The 2017 Mid-Season Invitational has ended and the answer on everybody’s mind has been answered: ‘Who’s going to come second behind SK Telecom this year?’ We’ve marked the halfway point for the year’s professional League of Legend matches and now wipe the slate clean for the LCS Summer Split beginning June 1st (or June 2nd Pacific). The warmup is over and the battle begins for teams to win their chance to compete in the greatest accomplishment for League of Legends teams and players alike, the World Championship.
5 months ago we discussed a strategy toward betting on LCS that involved: betting with bettor determined favourites to use their knowledge as our tool, having a proportionate stake across groups of games each LCS week to minimise risk, and reinvesting whatever you choose to begin with until the last game of Week 10 in Europe ends.
Interestingly, favourites amongst EU and NA delivered below expected with their season match win rates when compared to the year prior and a pattern that was believed represented bettor favourites winning an average of 80% of their matchups. Despite what looked like an underperformance, the betting approach still returned double its initial investment. -> Details of last season’s results can be read here.
Why we did not use my betting strategy during MSI:
Over the Mid-Season the same method was test-run against teams competing from different regions at MSI and the result was a miserable failure – and I suspect for the following reason.
- First, MSI matches ran of the Best of 1 structure which returned us to the lower reliable match win rates for favourites that we saw in LCS Spring Split of 2016
- The Group Stage was saturated with the best of the best teams so matches were arguably more unpredictable and difficult to determine a clear favourite
- MSI runs over a short period of time which gives less time for bettor correction when balancing out appropriate odds for teams who rarely play against each other
Understanding why it may not have worked gives us a clearer picture of when it will.
There were two significant factors that impacted on the strategy earlier this year and two considerable changes being implemented for the Summer Split.
First, there didn’t seem to be a strong correlation between the chances of favourites winning in Week 1-2 compared to Week 3-9 as there appeared to be in the LCS the year prior. Especially coming into Summer Split with only few major team and roster changes, bettor consistency shouldn’t be heavily impacted in earlier weeks – SO, all LCS weeks will be included in the strategy
Second, there were occasions last season where markets were down prior to games starting amongst the various bettors that were used to record the odds and bets. This season we’ll using the markets and odds offered by bet365 who proved to be the more reliable source of information.
View upcoming LCS betting odds
Bets for LCS Summer Split 2017 – Week 1
Following the pattern of the Spring Split betting cycle strategy, below is the Betting Group 1 matches. The odds for matches in Betting Group 2 and 3 will change as the first Week of LCS progresses.
Read more about the upcoming LCS matches:
|Week 1 – LCS Summer 2017|
|Team 1||Odds||Team 2||Odds|
|Betting Group 1||H2K||1.44||SPY||2.62|
|Betting Group 2||H2K||MM|
|Betting Group 3||TSM||IMT|
Betting Group 1
Splitting the bets across favourites in the matches played on Europe Day 1 and Day 2, and North America Day 1
- H2K paying 1.44
- FNC paying 1.66
- G2 Esports paying 1.40
- Unicorns of Love paying 1.44
- Cloud 9 paying 1.66
- Pheonix 1 paying 1.30
The following formula is used to determine what stake to place against each bet if we want each winning bet to return an equal amount (spreading the risk and the potential gain). These calculations are based on the assumption of starting the season investment with $200 (or equivalent) but can be calculated with any starting value.
Stake Potential = Starting Investment / ((1/Odds of Bet 1) + (1/Odds of Bet 2) + (1/Odds of Bet 3) + (1/Odds of Bet 4) + (1/Odds of Bet 5) + (1/Odds of Bet 6))
putting it into practice for betting group 1:
Stake Potential = 200 / ((1/1.44) + (1/1.66) + (1/1.40) + (1/1.44) + (1/1.66) + (1/1.30))
Stake Potential = 49.05
The Stake Potential gives us the value that each bet returns upon a win. To determine the stake, simply divide the Stake Potential by the Bet Odds.
Stake = Stake Potential / Bet Odds
Stake = 49.05 / 1.44 (H2K)
The following is the stake for each match in Betting Group 1 of LCS Summer Split Week 1
- H2K stake 34.06
- FNC stake 29.55
- G2 Esports stake 35.04
- Unicorns of Love stake 34.06
- Cloud 9 stake 29.55
- Pheonix 1 stake 37.73
** The contents of this article and the thoughts, findings and opinions of the writer. Any individual choosing to participate based on the information in this article should do so after their own critical analysis and remember to gamble responsibly. **
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About The Author:
Theories and formulas by Jordan Mackenzie, Business graduate and lolesports fanatic. Oceanic League player who belongs in ELO Hell. Follow Jordan on Twitter to get the latest updates on his strategy.