Week 4 – Jordan’s LCS Betting Strategy

The opening week for our LCS Spring Split 2017 betting strategy has just passed with varied success. As was mentioned – the first two games of Week 3 were equal favourites at the time of posting last week’s article. This meant that we had only four games to bet on in Betting Group 1, six games in Betting Group 2 and four more games in Betting Group 3. So where do we stand at the end of our first betting week in LCS Spring 2017? More importantly; it’s early days but does the strategy work?

Upcoming LCS matches:

Favourites Performance in Week 3

Favourite according to betting odds won 
Favourite according to betting odds lost 
No favourite according to betting odds – no bet placed 

LCS – NA and EU Spring Split 2017 – Results Week 3
Team 1 Odds Team 2 Odds Result Bookie
Betting Group 1 SPY 1.83 UoL 1.83 2 : 1 B365
FNC 1.83 MIS 1.83 0 : 2 B365
H2K 1.36 VIT 3.00 2 : 1 B365
G2 1.12 GIA 5.50 2 : 0 B365
P1 1.70 IMT 2.10 2 : 1 LUX
TL 1.36 NV 3.40 0 : 2 LUX
Betting Group 2 SPY 1.20 OG 4.33 2 : 0 B365
FNC 1.22 ROC 4.00 2 : 1 B365
TSM 1.59 CLG 2.30 2 : 1 LUX
DIG 1.67 FLY 2.15 2 : 0 LUX
TL 1.67 FOX 2.15 2 : 1 LUX
C9 1.10 NV 6.50 2 : 0 B365
Betting Group 3 TSM 1.66 P1 2.10 2 : 1 WH
DIG 1.90 CLG 1.917 0 : 2 PIN
IMT 1.87 FLY 1.88 2 : 0 LUX
C9 1.20 FOX 4.33 2 : 0 B365

What did we make last week?

Results of last LCS week
Starting Investment previous Balance Performance last week Perfomance % New Balance
$200 $200 + $22.61 + 11.31% $222.61

If we pick up from where we left off last week, I provided a list of odds and favourites to pick for Week 3 LCS. If you’d have stuck with these bets over the course of the weekend then the $200 which we hypothetically started with would have turned into $222.61 by the end of North America’s Day 3. That’s an 11% growth over the weekend which is of course an underperformance because of Dignitas and Immortal’s losses on Day 3 of North America – taking away a chunk of our earnings. We had actually finished EU Day 3 and NA Day 2 with $277.91 and the weekend was showing promising signs of success!

If you followed the strategy over the weekend and didn’t just ‘copy and paste’ the teams that were shown to bet on, then you may have had even greater success. Both FlyQuest and Immortals lost their first match of the weekend. As their showdown grew closer, FlyQuest actually became a common favourite for the win between the two sides based on their performance. For those who reassessed their favourites before betting on the last Betting Group of the weekend (as I did), you would have had further wins on top of the $277.91 that was the balance of Betting Group 2.

The strategy

You may be thinking, “How did we gain so little if we won 11 of our 14 games?”. It’s unfortunate that our growth was stymied by losses in NA Day 3 but it also serves as good news for the following reason.

In Betting Group 3 we lost 50% of our games because the spread was only across four matches. This scenario shows us that many small incremental wins softens the blow when the numbers play against us and that our balance should continue to grow when this happens because of the constant small wins that we have.

An 11% increase over the weekend isn’t much when you are betting and hoping for that big figure but take into account that this system is designed to minimise the chance that you’ll lose. 11% growth is well below average for a single LCS week of betting with this strategy, although what if we did continue with the same increase over the course of the Spring Split? We’d finish by doubling our initial investment! Do the math; an 11% increase on $200 each week over 7 weeks. Not bad considering it’s our unfavourable result.

The Power of Compounding Numbers

In the above example the reason we end up with double our money is because of the power of compounding numbers. If we had 11% growth each week then as long as we are reinvesting our balance then we will have winnings on our winnings. That’s where this strategy really shines. Minimised risk means we continue to play the odds of favourites winning up to and above 80% of their games and compound our wins over and over again.

For the coming Week 4 I’ve provided and draft of what teams to bet on, their odds, and our projected potential winning that we have information on already. As always, your personal results with this strategy may vary as odds go up and down before the match starts. Remember to keep an eye on the teams in-between betting Groups as just like last week, favourites may jump around and change who we put our support behind.

I have left out a bet for G2 Esports’ second game of the weekend against Origen because they are such a high favourite that they are only paying $1.04. Games like this are good to give us an almost guaranteed win; the odds for this match however are simply too low and including it effects our average return from games in Betting Group 2 too greatly. Have a look at the matchups for next week and see what we can do with our new balance from last week:

Betting Group 1

EU Day 1 and 2, and NA Day 1. The matches are the following;

  • Unicorns of Love paying 1.16
  • G2 Esports paying 1.30
  • Splyce paying 1.72
  • Fanatic paying 1.44
  • C9 paying 1.25
  • Dignitas paying 1.66

Winning Value per Bet = 222.61 / ((1/1.16) + (1/1.30) + (1/1.72) + (1/1.44) + (1/1.25) + (1/1.66))

Winning Value per Bet = $51.66

Stakes Group 1

  • Unicorns of Love’s stake is $44.53
  • G2 Esports’ stake is $39.74
  • Splyce’s stake is $30.03
  • Fanatic’s stake is $35.87
  • C9’s stake is $41.33
  • Dignitas’ stake is $31.12

Betting Group 2

EU Day 3 and NA Day 2

  • H2K paying 1.20
  • CLG paying 1.53
  • Pheonix 1 paying 1.66
  • Team Liquid paying 1.66
  • TSM paying 1.11

Winning Value per Bet = 309.93 / ((1/1.20) + (1/1.53) + (1/1.66) + (1/1.66) + (1/1.11))

Winning Value per Bet = $78.43

Stakes Group 2

  • H2K’s stake is $65.36
  • CLG’s stake is $51.26
  • Pheonix 1’s stake is $47.25
  • Team Liquid’s stake is $47.25
  • TSM’s stake is $70.66

Potential Winning = $470.57

Betting Group 3

NA Day 3

  • Pheonix 1 paying 1.57
  • TSM paying 1.25
  • C9 paying 1.40
  • Dignitas paying 1.36

Winning Value per Bet = 470.57 / ((1/1.57) + (1/1.25) + (1/1.40) + (1/1.36))

Winning Value per Bet = $163.02

Stakes Group 3

  • Pheonix 1’s stake is $103.83
  • TSM’s stake is $130.42
  • C9’s stake is $116.44
  • Dignitas’ stake is $119.87

Potential Winning = $652.09

You might also be interested in:

LCS 2017 – Overview

Jordan’s LCS betting strategy explained

LoL Betting – Oveview

more eSports betting tips and predictions

Jordan - LoL article writerAbout The Author:
Theories and formulas by Jordan Mackenzie, Business graduate and lolesports fanatic. Oceanic League player who belongs in ELO Hell. Follow Jordan on Twitter to get the latest updates on his strategy.