CSGO is a game with plenty of specific mechanics that make for a rich and excellent gaming experience. Its presence among some of the top esports games (such as LoL and Dota 2) showcases just how popular it is among gamers. It’s also quite a common choice for bettors, especially those gambling with CSGO skins. So, let’s take a look at CSGO case odds and what you can expect from CSGO cases.

What are CSGO Cases?

CSGO cases are a game mechanic and item that the player can receive through drops, Operation Mission rewards, and by purchasing them from the market. Additionally, in CSGO skin gambling, users can sometimes receive cases as rewards for leveling up their accounts.

CSGO cases can only be opened with the appropriate key (there are dozens of different case types and each of those requires a specific key). Once opened, the player will receive one skin from multiple, determined through RNG (Random Number Generator).


Cases generally contain more than 20 skins but can sometimes have as many as 40. The skins found in cases come in a few grades and wear-and-tear levels. In essence, each weapon case you open will give you one skin, chosen at random.

CSGO skin grades:

  • High-grade, Mil-spec (Blue colour)
  • Remarkable, Restricted (Purple colour)
  • Exotic, Classified (Pink colour)
  • Extraordinary, Covert (Red colour)
  • Melee Weapons (Yellow colour)

Any item from this list also has a fixed 10% chance of having the StatTrak trait which is highly sought for in the market and can drastically increase a skin’s value if the skin itself is very rare.

For reference, StatTrak pertains to the skin’s ability to track the number of kills you make with the weapon. The StatTrak counter contains 6 digits which makes the maximum number of kills it can track 999,999. After that, the counter resets to 0.

What are CSGO Case Odds?

CSGO case odds represent the chance to win a certain skin. More common skins appear more often from crates and the rarest ones almost never appear. While the experience varies for everyone, each case, grade, and wear level of weapon skin has a rough fixed percentage value associated with its chance of being selected by RNG.

Because of this, CSGO skin gambling is generally very exciting but also somewhat complex due to the sheer number of available skins and their values. You can also check this Reddit post from a couple of years ago for more references and potential information.

Currently, these are the CSGO case odds for a specific grade of skin and its wear level to appear:

Grade Odds

Blue ~ 79%

Blue weapon skins are the most common type of weapon skin found in CSGO cases. CSGO case odds of this magnitude may deter players from seeking to win rarer and more expensive skins but overall, these are better than the basic ones.

Purple ~16%

Purple skins are commonly sold on the marketplace as they are associated with a nice degree of luck since the player only has a 16% chance of winning one. They also don’t cost a lot on the market hence why purple skins are such a popular choice.

Pink ~ 3.5%

Now we’re getting to the truly rare CSGO skins. Pink skins are seldom won from crates but when they are, it’s cause for celebration, figuratively speaking. CSGO skin bettors can be very happy if they manage to win a pink weapon skin seeing how there’s only a 3.5% to get it.

Red ~ 0.9%

Red skins are the absolute rarest (when it comes to firearms) in the game and in the cases as well. They’re the pinnacle of CSGO skin gambling and trading and can go for thousands on the marketplace.

Yellow ~ 0.3%

Yellow skins are related to melee weapons or gloves only and aren’t found in every weapon case. Certain CSGO skin cases do not contain yellow (melee) weapon skins which makes them even rarer than Red ones.

Wear Odds

A skin’s wear level depends on its skin float value. The CSGO float value is a number between 0.00 and 1.00; it is randomly assigned to each weapon when it’s dropped on the ground or looted from the ground. The float value is essentially what determines the state of the skin you drop or pick up.

Here’s how the CSGO float value numbers look like:

  • Factory New (0.00 – 0.07)
  • Minimal Wear (0.07 – 0.15)
  • Field-Tested (0.15 – 0.38)
  • Well-Worn (0.38 – 0.45)
  • Battle-Scarred (0.45 – 1.00)

As for the wear levels, here’s which ones exist, ranked from best to worst:

CSGO skin wear:

  • Factory New (no scratches, dirt, discoloration, or marks)
  • Minimal Wear
  • Field-Tested (aesthetic effects of usage are pronounced but still somewhat hidden)
  • Well-Worn (scratches, dirt, discoloration, and marks are highly pronounced on the weapon)
  • Battle-Scarred (Maximum presence of usage marks and damage)

Keep in mind that the wear level does not impact weapon performance and is purely aesthetic. Both of these categories of weapon skins directly influence the skin’s price, so players are always hoping to receive the rarest and ‘cleanest’ skins with StatTrak.

The odds for getting one of five possible skin wear levels are as follows:

  • Factory New ~ 15%
  • Minimal Wear ~ 24%
  • Field-Tested ~ 43%
  • Battle-Scarred ~ 10%
  • Well-Worn ~ 8%

Just a reminder that the most expensive CSGO skin in history is the Karambit Case Hardened, Factory New knife skin (with the 387 Blue Gem pattern) which is extremely rare. The price? Almost $100,000 (~98,000 Euros or ~82,500 Pounds)! The owner of this skin (purchased a few years ago) also received an anonymous offer for $1.4 million (~1,370,000 Euros or 1,150,000 Pounds) but turned it down.

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Best Place to Start CSGO Skins Betting

CSGO skin betting websites are not new seeing how they’ve been around for almost as long as the game has. However, due to the sheer number of them, the initial betting process might be too difficult for beginners. It can also be tough to pick the best ones.

Betting on CSGO esports tournaments usually involves the use of skins instead of money which is the most common betting resource in the gambling world. Websites that offer skin betting first and foremost need to be legit and reputable.

After all, you’re connecting your Steam account with your account on their website so there’s a lot of sensitive information that needs to be protected.

Well, to save you the trouble of analyzing and comparing dozens of CSGO skin betting websites, we’ve decided to give you three that are fully legit and highly popular among the CSGO skin betting community. All of them have live streams as well which is very helpful seeing how you won’t have to use another website (like Twitch or YouTube) to watch.

CSGO Empire

CSGO Empire is one of the most popular skin gambling websites out there. They’re also one of the most transparent. They have been active since 2016 and have, since then, managed to attract tens of thousands of daily users. The overall betting experience is simple and quick; deposit skins (which are converted to Empire Coins), cryptocurrency, or cash (also converted to Coins) through a couple of payment methods including Skrill, Neteller, and credit cards.

After that, choose the teams you wish to bet on and that’s it! You can withdraw your winnings in the form of Coins which you can then spend on the marketplace to purchase additional CSGO skins. Lastly, you can get a form of betting bonus by continuing to use the site (by either playing Roulette/Other games or betting).

Duelbits

Duelbits is a fairly unique CSGO skin gambling website that hasn’t been around for long. However, during their short existence, they managed to create an enjoyable and entertaining betting experience.

By leveling up your account, you’ll keep receiving new cases with some pretty impressive prizes within. You’ll also be able to join the VIP Programme for additional benefits.

As for the betting itself, Duelbits provides great odds across a wide range of betting markets. They’re also open to most esports countries and tend to adjust their betting options accordingly. Overall, you can’t go wrong with Duelbits if you’re just starting out.

CSGO Roll

CSGO Roll was created the same year that CSGO Empire was started so it’s evident that long-lasting, traditional skin gambling websites are perfect for beginners.

CSGO Roll features bespoke gambling games that you can play while waiting on your chosen esports teams to begin their matches. The odds they offer are great and there are plenty of betting markets to choose from as well.

Arguably the biggest benefit of CSGO Roll is global availability. There are only a few countries in the world where CSGO Roll is not available which makes them a highly popular choice everywhere. As with the previous two, you can expect full transparency from CSGO Roll. Lastly, creating an account will net you a free betting bonus.

Which are the Best Profitable CSGO Case odds from cases?

Certain CSGO cases are better than others due to their price, skin appearance chance, and the quality of skins within the case. Whenever possible, you should try to purchase cheaper CSGO cases that contain rarer items. Although this isn’t always possible (and considering just how many cases there are), it should be your primary goal.

To save you some time, here are a couple of excellent and potentially profitable CSGO cases.

Recoil Case

The Recoil Case is one of the newest additions to the CSGO case collection, having been released in July 2022. It contains 17 community-designed weapon skins including a skin for the USP-S, AWP, and AK-47. You can also win a pair of gloves but the chances of that are low. The case includes these skins:

  • FAMAS – Meow 36
  • Galil AR – Destroyer
  • M4A4 – Poly Mag
  • MAC-10 – Monkeyflage
  • Negev – Drop Me
  • UMP-45 – Roadblock
  • Glock-18 – Winterized
  • R8 Revolver – Crazy 8
  • M249 – Downtown
  • SG 553 – Dragon Tech
  • P90 – Vent Rush
  • Dual Berettas – Flora Carnivora
  • AK-47 – Ice Coaled
  • P250 – Visions
  • Sawed-Off – KissLove
  • USP-S – Prinstream
  • AWP – Chromatic Aberration
  • An Exceedingly Rare Set of Gloves

Operation Riptide Case

Operation Riptide is an Operation and Mission set released to CSGO in September 2021. It contains the same number of skins as the Recoil Case (17), all of which were designed by various community members. The skins in this skin case are brightly coloured. Here’s what you can expect.

  • Desert Eagle – Ocean Drive
  • AK-47 – Leet Museo
  • SSG 08 – Turbo Peek
  • Glock-18 – Snack Attack
  • MAC-10 – Toybox
  • M4A4 – Spider Lily
  • MP9 – Mount Fuji
  • Five-SeveN – Boost Protocol
  • FAMAS – ZX Spectron
  • MAG-7 – BI83 Spectrum
  • XM1014 – Watchdog
  • USP-S – Black Lotus
  • PP-Bizon – Lumen
  • MP7 – Guerrilla
  • G3SG1 – Keeping Tabs
  • Dual Berettas – Tread
  • AUG – Plague
  • An Exceedingly Rare Special Item

Chroma 3 Case

The Chroma 3 case is the oldest of the three we’re mentioning, having been around since 2016. It also contains 17 skins which is a great deal considering the price of this CSGO skin case. Here are the contents of the case of which you get one skin per case:

  • M4A1-S – Chantico’s Fire
  • PP-Bizon – Judgement of Anubis
  • UMP-45 – Primal Saber
  • P250 – Asiimov
  • AUG – Fleet Flock
  • XM1014 – Black Tie
  • Tec-9 – Re-Entry
  • SSG 08 – Ghost Crusader
  • Galil AR – Firefight
  • CZ75-Auto – Red Astor
  • SG 553 – Atlas
  • Sawed-Off – Fubar
  • P2000 – Oceanic
  • MP9 – Bioleak
  • M249 – Spectre
  • G3SG1 – Orange Crash
  • Dual Berettas – Ventilators
  • An Exceedingly Rare Special Item

Are CSGO Cases Worth it with such low odds?

Making a profit from CSGO skin cases should never be your primary method of income. Always be sure that you are using disposable income for skin gambling and nothing else. CSGO cases are luck-based and as such are classified as gambling.

With that said, if you’re lucky enough, you can win a rare weapon skin that is worth quite a lot of money. And, even if you don’t, you’ll still get enough to continue placing wagers using CSGO skins. It can be worth it in the long run, but the same betting rules apply – success is more likely with the appropriate information, knowledge, and betting ability.

CSGO Case Odds Summary

In the end, getting specific CSGO weapon skins from cases is a form of gambling. The reason for this is that you can’t choose which skin you want to get from the case as it's based on a percentage chance.

With that said, CSGO cases are a great resource if you’re into CSGO skin gambling. The odds to win rarer skins are acceptable but don’t expect to win the rarest ones on your first try. There’s a reason they’re rare.


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FAQ

CSGO Case Odds FAQs

Your CSGO Case odds of winning a red (rarest firearm) skin are approximately 1 to 100 (~1% chance). More often than not, you’ll maybe win one or two skins across 200 opened cases, but these chances can differ between different cases.

The profitability of each case generally depends on your chances of winning the rarer skins but – some cases are very affordable and will usually net you a slight profit if you’re lucky. For example, the Chroma 3 case is very cheap and contains some excellent skins.

The Gamma 2 case contains three insane Karambit skins – Autotronic, Gamma Doppler, and Lore. Most cases generally have one knife skin so this one is definitely up there if you want to win a knife skin.

Yes, CSGO cases are a form of gambling since your prize depends on chance and luck. This is why CSGO skin betting is banned in certain countries.

Knife skins are usually the rarest prize one can receive from CSGO skin cases. At any point, you have a chance of just 0.3% to win a knife skin (with very small differences between cases). Translated into CSGO case odds and you’ve got a 1 in 300 chance to win one. There’s a reason why Karambit skins are the most expensive ones on the market.

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