Another slow week overall for our LCS betting strategy as North American teams not only struggle over middle-ladder positions but also challenge the throne of our top teams with back-to-back wins over FlyQuest and C9 occurring over the weekend. This turbulence for our North American LoL teams who have been flying high means the strategy has been suffering because matchups have been close and favourites have been losing more than expected.
Upcoming LCS matches:
Favourites Performance in Week 5
Favourite according to betting odds won
Favourite according to betting odds lost
No favourite according to betting odds / odds too low= no bet placed
|LCS – NA and EU Spring Split 2017 – Results Week 5
|Team 1||Odds||Team 2||Odds||Result||Bookie|
|Betting Group 1||G2||1,72||UOL||2,00||2 : 0
|SPY||1,72||FNC||2,00||2 : 1
|MIS||1,20||VIT||4,33||2 : 0
|H2K||1,20||GIA||4,33||2 : 0
|FLY||1,30||DIG||3,40||0 : 2
|P1||1,20||NV||4,33||2 : 0
|Betting Group 2||SPY||1,12||ROC||5,50||2 : 0||B365|
|FNC||1,12||OG||5,50||2 : 0
|C9||1,66||TSM||2,10||1 : 2
|FOX||1,33||NV||3,25||0 : 2
|CLG||1,83||IMT||1,83||0 : 2
|DIG||1,72||TL||2,00||2 : 1
|Betting Group 3*||FLY||1,72||TSM||2,00||1 : 2
|C9||1,44||P1||2,62||0 : 2||B365|
|FOX||1,66||IMT||2,10||0 : 2
|TL||1,66||CLG||2,10||1 : 2||B365|
*.) no bets placed in Group 3 because of risk management (see below for more details)
What did we make last week?
|Results of last LCS week
|Starting Investment||previous Balance||Performance last week||Perfomance %||New Balance|
|$200||$108.68||– $9.84||– 9,05%||$98.84|
Where are we now?
There were five games total that we didn’t bet on this week. In Betting Group 2 we had CLG and Immortals as even odds and so as per usual did not choose a favourite for you and left them out of the Betting Group for our running tally. Betting Group 3 was avoided altogether because the market for the Immortals v Echo Fox game went down in the hours prior to match starts on some betting sites and betting across only three teams is below our minimum for spreading our risk.
The strategy lost money again this week dropping from $108.68 to $98.84 by the end of Betting Group 2. As explained last week – I’m not admitting defeat and considering this a failure until the end of week 10! We haven’t actually lost anything until we call it quits. For the time being we’ll ride through the inconsistent weeks.
Europe Consistency Crushing North America
Fortunately we didn’t invest into Betting Group 3 last week because every single North American favourite lost. Actually, out of the entire Week 5 only two out of nine favourites won. North American matches seem to be completely inconsistent right now which if anything is a testament to the quality of competition in the region. Great for viewing, bad for betting.
European favourites on the other hand won every single match in Week 5. Since the start of LCS Spring Split 2017, European favourites have won 90% of their matches compared to their North American counterparts who have won only 46% since Week 1.
To make the comparison clearer in terms of our strategy’s performance; using the same formula and odds that we’ve recorded each week, if we had bet on only Europe LCS instead of both EU and NA beginning in Week 3 then our starting $200 would now be $423.71. I know! Life is 20/20 vision in retrospect. It is however relevant to see where we should be if favourites were performing as consistently as patterns indicated that they should.
Going into Week 6 of the 2017 LCS Spring Split I’ll be postponing bets on North American teams and waiting to see whether their performance for the week returns to some form of normality. Opting for a safe route with bets across the six EU LCS games this coming weekend and reassessing next week when we have more data. The following is the list off odds and favourites currently standing for EU LCS according to online betting site Bet365:
Favourites Week 6 according to betting odds:
This gives us a safe bet on EU favourites where 90% of matches so far have been in our favour – if all teams win, returning just under 22% of our current balance. It also gives us a week to watch how North American teams perform.
Betting Group 1
EU Day 1, 2 and 3. Bets are as follows:
- Unicorns of Love paying 1.57
- H2K paying 1.66
- G2 Esports paying 1.062
- Splyce paying 1.14
- Misfits paying 1.062
- Unicorns of Love paying 1.08
Winning Value per Bet = 98.84 / ((1/1.57) + (1/1.66) + (1/1.062) + (1/1.14) + (1/1.062) + (1/1.08))
Winning Value per Bet = $20.08
Stakes Group 1
- Unicorns of Love’s stake is 12.79
- H2K stake is 12.10
- G2 Esports stake is 18.91
- Splyce stake is 17.61
- Misfits stake is 18.91
- Unicorns of Love stake is 18.59
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About The Author:
Theories and formulas by Jordan Mackenzie, Business graduate and lolesports fanatic. Oceanic League player who belongs in ELO Hell. Follow Jordan on Twitter to get the latest updates on his strategy.