This is the part where I crawl into my hole and hide – covering my ears from the naysayers who are shouting “past performance does not predict future results!”. It doesn’t; but patterns help us determine outcomes. For those playing at home, this week favourites performed badly and our strategy suffered. We’re still in the game, however, and those paying attention will remember that we are playing til the end to use the power of averages and compounding numbers. Remember the goal and don’t panic while we’re down.
Upcoming LCS matches:
Favourites Performance in Week 4 (The horror…)
Favourite according to betting odds won
Favourite according to betting odds lost
No favourite according to betting odds / odds too low= no bet placed
|LCS – NA and EU Spring Split 2017 – Results Week 4
|Team 1||Odds||Team 2||Odds||Result||Bookie|
|Betting Group 1||UoL||1,16||GIA||4,50||2 : 0
|G2||1,30||H2K||3,40||2 : 1
|SPY||1,72||MIS||2,00||0 : 2
|FNC||1,44||VIT||2,63||2 : 01||B365|
|C9||1,25||TL||3,75||2 : 1||B365|
|DIG||1,66||IMT||2,10||0 : 2
|Betting Group 2||H2K||1,20||ROC||4,33||2 : 0||B365|
|G2||1,04||OG||9,00||2 : 0
|CLG||1,53||FOX||2,37||0 : 2
|FLY||1,72||P1||2,00||2 : 0||B365|
|TL||1,66||IMT||2,10||0 : 2
|TSM||1,11||NV||6,00||2 : 0||B365|
|Betting Group 3||P1||1,57||CLG||2,25||1 : 2
|TSM||1,25||FOX||3,75||0 : 2||B365|
|C9||1,40||FLY||2,75||2 : 1
|DIG||1,36||NV||3,00||2 : 0||B365|
What did we make last week?
|Results of last LCS week
|Starting Investment||previous Balance||Performance last week||Perfomance %||New Balance|
|$200||$222.61||– $113.93||– 51,18%||$108.68|
Where are we now?
Our only mid-schedule change this week was the FlyQuest versus Pheonix 1 game after odds shifted halfway through the weekend before we began Betting Group 2. Overall it was a poor performance from favourites who won only 63% of matches – what I’m hoping is a negative outlier that implies chances of success will pick up from this point onwards.
We began the weekend with $222.61 and finished with $108.68, roughly a 51% loss. Deciding not to include G2 Esports in our Betting Group 2 meant we lost a certain win but it also lowered the average odds in a Betting Group that appeared to have relatively straight forward favourites. Shocking losses from CLG, Team Liquid and Team Solo Mid proved that safer may have been smarter this week.
Do we cut and run?
I know we aren’t investing! But humour me. In 2008, if you had stock in the market then you lost up to half of its value over the following year. If you sold your stock. The value is reduced but you don’t lose money until you sell. Favourites in NA and EU LCS on average win approximately 65% of games and 80% of matches. What has changed is that this time we were hit with many losses in the space of a week.
I, of course, will be reinvesting into exactly the same strategy knowing that over the period of the next 5 weeks that consistent incremental compounding wins have the ability to build our pot back up to and well above where we started. Each of our Betting Groups last weekend was below the 80% win rate for favourites which meant that our total kitty was reduced three times. I’m happy to absorb the losses if they are against the average knowing that they shouldn’t continue.
One step at a time
From this point onward we will make a habit of giving a breakdown of Betting Group 1 only knowing that odds consistently change as the matches progress after Day 1 of NA and EU. The following are the odds and favourites for Betting Group 1.
CLG and Immortals is currently considered an even matchup according to Bet365 odds so we will be leaving them out of this week’s Betting Group 1. As a final message of how our strategy can turn around quickly; if all favourite matches win in Week 5 then we have a growth potential from $108.68 to $397.76, or 365%, based on current odds through Bet365. It wouldn’t be an unheard of situation either considering that EU’s favourites won 16/18 matches in the first 3 weeks! We shall soon see.
Betting Group 1
EU Day 1 and 2, and NA Day 1. The matches are the following;
- G2 Esports paying 1.72
- Splyce paying 1.72
- Misfits paying 1.20
- H2K paying 1.20
- FOX paying 1.33
Winning Value per Bet = 108.68 / ((1/1.72) + (1/1.72) + (1/1.20) + (1/1.20) + (1/1.33))
Winning Value per Bet = $32.99
Stakes Group 1
G2 Esports’ stake is 19.18
Splyce’s stake is 19.18
Misfits’ stake is 27.49
H2K’s stake is 27.49
FOX’s stake is 24.80
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About The Author:
Theories and formulas by Jordan Mackenzie, Business graduate and lolesports fanatic. Oceanic League player who belongs in ELO Hell. Follow Jordan on Twitter to get the latest updates on his strategy.