The premise behind spreading your bets is so that when you lose, notice how I used the word when, you lose as little as possible. The argument in this scenario is whether spreading your bets across likely outcomes is more likely to have gradual but eventual returns. From seasons past there seem to be a consistency with match favourites winning roughly 60% of games and 80% of matches. Typically in LCS, 80% of wins across a round of betting results in growth.
Take this week as an example; 13 of 18 favourites’ matches were won (that’s roughly 72%). Not all favourites were born equal however so we are at mercy of the odds to determine how much growth 80% wins will actually return. In this case even an under performance was enough to break even for the week.
|Week 2 LCS Summer Split 2017 – Results and Betting Odds
|Team 1||Odds||Team 2||Odds||Result|
|Betting Group 1||MIS||1.36||NIP||3.00||2 : 0|
|G2||1.53||FNC||2.37||1 : 2|
|SPY||1.57||VIT||2.25||2 : 0|
|UoL||1.083||MM||7.00||2 : 0|
|C9||1.57||P1||2.25||2 : 0|
|IM||1.30||NV||3.40||0 : 2|
|Betting Group 2||MIS||1.33||ROC||3.25||2 : 1|
|G2||1.083||NIP||7.00||2 : 0|
|CLG||1.53||FOX||2.37||2 : 1|
|TSM||1.33||DIG||3.25||1 : 2|
|NV||1.57||TL||2.25||2 : 1|
|IM||1.28||FLY||3.50||2 : 1|
|Betting Group 3||SPY||1.28||MM||3.50||2 : 0|
|UoL||1.72||H2K||2.00||2 : 1|
|C9||1.40||FOX||2.75||2 : 0|
|DIG||1.36||TL||3.00||1 : 2|
|TSM||1.72||CLG||2.00||2 : 1|
|P1||1.50||FLY||2.50||0 : 2|
What did we make last week?
|Results of last LCS week
|Starting Investment||previous Balance||Performance last week||Perfomance %||New Balance|
|$333,91||$200||+ $1.11||+ 0.56%||$201.11|
Picking Winners over Playing Favourites
I don’t know about you but I wouldn’t have picked well this week. I wouldn’t have picked a 3-0 Dignitas to lose to an 0-3 Team Liquid, I wouldn’t have picked FlyQuest over Pheonix 1 regardless of a three loss streak for both teams to start the season, and I wouldn’t have picked a G2 Esports loss this close to coming from the momentum of playing at MSI.
If you can pick ‘em, great! My luck’s not so great. I choose to play on the success of favourites because I’ve done it before and LCS this split has thirty rounds of betting and potential wins. Small wins over that many rounds has the potential to compound into something beautiful.
View upcoming LCS betting odds
Bets for LCS Summer Split 2017 – Week 3
The betting odds at the time of posting for week three’s games are as they are seen below.
Read more about the upcoming LCS matches:
|Week 3 – LCS Summer 2017 – Betting Odds
|Team 1||Odds||Team 2||Odds|
|Betting Group 1||VIT||1.40||MM||2.75|
|Betting Group 2||ROC||1.66||NIP||2.10|
|Betting Group 3||TSM||1.36||NV||3.00|
Calculation for Betting Group 1
Splitting the initial bets across favourites in the matches played on Europe Day 1 and Day 2, and North America Day 1
- Vitality paying 1.40
- Fanatic paying 1.20
- G2 Esports paying 1.25
- Unicorns of Love paying 1.30
- Immortals paying 1.25
- Team EnVyUs paying 1.57
The formular in detail:
The following formula is used to determine what stake to place against each bet if we want each winning bet to return an equal amount (spreading the risk and the potential gain). These calculations are based on the current season total of $201.11 but can be calculated with any starting value.
Stake Potential = Starting Investment / ((1/Odds of Bet 1) + (1/Odds of Bet 2) + (1/Odds of Bet 3) + (1/Odds of Bet 4) + (1/Odds of Bet 5) + (1/Odds of Bet 6))
Stake Potential = 201.11 / ((1/1.40) + (1/1.20) + (1/1.25) + (1/1.30) + (1/1.25) + (1/1.57))
Stake Potential = 44.16
The Stake Potential gives us the value that each bet returns upon a win. To determine the stake, simply divide the Stake Potential by the Bet Odds.
Stake = Stake Potential / Bet Odds
Stake = 44.16 / 1.40 (Vitality)
Stakes for Betting Group 1
The following is the stake for each match in Betting Group 1 of LCS Summer Split Week 3:
- Misfits’ stake 31.54
- G2 Esports’ stake 36.80
- Splyce’s stake 35.33
- Unicorns of Love’s stake 33.97
- Cloud 9’s stake 35.33
- Immortals’ stake 28.13
** The contents of this article and the thoughts, findings and opinions of the writer. Any individual choosing to participate based on the information in this article should do so after their own critical analysis, and remember to gamble responsibly. **
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About The Author:
Theories and formulas by Jordan Mackenzie, Business graduate and lolesports fanatic. Oceanic League player who belongs in ELO Hell. Follow Jordan on Twitter to get the latest updates on his strategy.