Final update: Jordan’s LCS Betting Strategy

If you’ve been following this series since it began at the start of the year – first and foremost, my apologies for not keeping you updated over the last few weeks. I began writing these articles because it was a strategy for betting on LCS that I use and I want to share with others the successes I’ve had. Unfortunately, I’ve been unlucky this split with results from the weeks 3 to 6 as below and having poor performance in Week 3 and devastating performance in Week 5 will make it impossible to come back from by the end of the 2017 Summer Split.

The results of the last LCS weeks:

Favourite according to betting odds won
Favourite according to betting odds lost
No favourite according to betting odds / odds too low / market not available = no bet placed

Week 3 LCS Summer Split 2017 – Results and Betting Odds
Team 1 Odds Team 2 Odds
Betting Group 1 VIT 1.40 MM 2.75
FNC 1.20 ROC 4.33
G2 1.25 MIS 3.75
UoL 1.30 SPY 3.40
IMT 1.25 TL 3.75
NV 1.57 FOX 2.25
Betting Group 2 ROC 1.66 NIP 2.10
H2K 1.20 VIT 4.33
C9 1.53 IMT 2.37
TSM 1.12 TL 5.50
CLG 1.25 FLY 3.75
DIG 1.44 P1 2.62
Betting Group 3 TSM 1.36 NV 3.00
CLG 1.36 NV 3.00
C9 1.25 FLY 3.75
DIG 1.40 FOX 2.75
Week 4 LCS Summer Split 2017 – Results and Betting Odds
Team 1 Odds Team 2 Odds
Betting Group 1 MIS 1.30 VIT 3.40
FNC 1.66 H2K 2.10
SPY 1.53 ROC 2.37
G2 1.66 UoL 2.10
IMT 1.72 CLG 2.00
FOX 1.400 P1 2.75
Betting Group 2 H2K 1.04 NIP 9.00
FNC 1.062 MM 8.00
CLG 1.57 NV 2.25
C9 1.28 TL 3.50
IMT 1.72 DIG 2.00
Betting Group 3 TSM 1.53 FOX 2.37
C9 1.83 DIG 1.83
NV 1.44 FLY 2.62
TL 1.83 P1 1.83
Week 5 LCS Summer Split 2017 – Results and Betting Odds
Team 1 Odds Team 2 Odds
Betting Group 1 MM 1.80 NIP 1.90
FNC 1.25 SPY 3.75
ROC 1.44 VIT 2.62
MIS 1.80 H2K 1.90
TSM 1.57 C9 2.25
NV 1.36 P1 3.00
Betting Group 2 G2 1.07 MM 9.00
UoL 1.07 NIP 7.50
C9 1.83 CLG 1.83
IMT 1.72 TSM 2.00
FOX 1.57 TL 2.25
DIG 1.30 FLY 3.40
Betting Group 3 FOX 1.44 FLY 2.62
IMT 1.20 P1 4.33
DIG 1.53 NV 2.37
CLG 1.25 TL 3.75
Week 6 LCS Summer Split 2017 – Results and Betting Odds
Team 1 Odds Team 2 Odds
Betting Group 1 VIT 1.36 NIP 3.00
H2K 1.22 ROC 4.00
G2 1.300 SPY 3.40
UoL 1.57 MIS 2.25
CLG 1.220 FLY 4.00
IMT 1.25 FOX 3.75
Betting Group 2 ROC 1.360 MM 3.00
FNC 1.09 VIT 7.64
CLG 1.44 DIG 2.62
TSM 1.36 P1 3.00
C9 1.36 NV 3.00
FLY 1.63 TL 2.31
Betting Group 3 C9 1.90 IMT 1.92
DIG 1.57 P1 2.25
NV 1.66 FOX 2.10
TSM 1.12 TL 5.50

Whats left of the betting funds?

Results of last LCS week
Starting Investment previous Balance Performance last weeks Perfomance % New Balance
$333,91 $201.11 – $163.96 – 81.52% $37.15

How the Game Has Changed

Summer Split has had lower average match win rates on a weekly basis with many results being lower than around 75%. The data that sparked the idea to bet in this pattern was that favourites were winning an average of above 80% of their matches – which has seemed to be steadily falling in 2017. That makes the concept of relying on match favourites to win consistently enough with smaller returns, redundant. For the time being – I won’t bet with the same strategy for the rest of Summer Split until I find more consistent winning method.

There are a few factors that could have influenced this method:

  1. As we all know, there have been many changes to the format; from moving to a Best of 3 match format over a longer Game Week period to increasing the number of bans per team. I believed that these changes would have put greater game winning potential in the hands of already strong teams, however it could also be that it has just increased the competitiveness of all teams in the LCS with more opportunity to play in such a high professional scene.
  2. As E-sports grows, the teams, players, budgets, coaching staff and organisations grow alongside it. The nature of relegation and a continually improving gaming scene means that the skill variety from top of the ladder teams and bottom of the ladder teams should be further and further bridged as time goes on. Who knows, we may even see SKT Telecom lose at LoL Worlds 2017 one of these days.
  3. Extreme high quality foreign players continue to populate both North American and European LCS, at the same time as teams being filled with up and coming talent and veterans of LCS who have been around for years. Player quality is becoming more saturated which over time will cause competitiveness between teams to be closer instead of further apart.

Going Forward

The good news is that for punters who study the teams and the games, the players and the matchups, it seems now more than in the past brining a strong personal analysis and picking the right team to back will have attractive payoffs (especially laying bets with either BET365 or Pinnacle). Keep following for weekly breakdowns on the matchups and who to back. Happy punting!

View upcoming LCS betting odds

Odds and predictions for LCS Summer Split 2017 – Week 7

Read more about the upcoming LCS matches, check the betting odds and the predictions by Addam:

** The contents of this article and the thoughts, findings and opinions of the writer. Any individual choosing to participate based on the information in this article should do so after their own critical analysis, and remember to gamble responsibly. **

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Jordan - LoL article writerAbout The Author:
Theories and formulas by Jordan Mackenzie, Business graduate and lolesports fanatic. Oceanic League player who belongs in ELO Hell. Follow Jordan on Twitter to get the latest updates on his strategy.