Now that the Group Stage of this first Major to take place in China is over, our perspective on the outcome of this tournament has changed. There were many surprises in the Group Stage with top teams underperforming and tier 2 teams coming out on top. A good example is that EHOME—which were the favorite coming to this tournament—were the first ones to drop down to the Lower Bracket. Here we will make our predictions for each day.
We’ve also made our predictions of the entire tournament to participate in Team Liquid’s Shanghai Major Bracket Contest. You can find them here: http://wiki.teamliquid.net/dota2/User:Wilx714/Shanghai_Major_2016
But now, let’s predict the games we already know that are going to be played:
Main Event – Upper Bracket – Predictions
Day 1 – Match #1: Alliance vs. Liquid
Alliance fans will be really excited to see them in this tournament. Once again, this seems to be their year. Since the new 6.86 patch was released they jumped back to the top. Their playing style goes really well with this patch and they’ve showed it by winning every series they’ve played the past 3 months—excepting Team Vega, but they’re not in this tournament. It feels like everything will be like The International 2013, so Alliance has the biggest chances of at least making it to the finals.
Liquid are also one of the best teams in competitive Dota, but still they don’t seem to be able to surpass teams like OG, EG or EHOME. They still managed to start in the Upper Bracket by being the top 2 in a very tough group. However, it’s still very hard they will be winning against Alliance. They’ve played this last month against many tier 2 teams and have lost to some. They also got a 2-0 loss against Alliance from a Captain Draft match in February.
Alliance has the advantage of coming to the tournament with the moral really high and the Meta game favoring them. They are on a winning streak against the best teams in the world and it doesn’t seem they will stop soon. Alliance has the advantage here.
>> Result Prediction: 2-0 Alliance
Day 1 – Match #2: MVP Phoenix vs. LGD
MVP Phoenix came to Shanghai as one of the weakest teams, and weren’t even considered the best team in SEA. Nevertheless, their flawless games against EHOME and Secret—which caused the Chinese team to drop to the Lower Bracket—made us realize how much these guys have improved since the last big tournament. Let’s also take into account that this team has 3 of their players in the top 6 players in the Chinese Leaderboards, which although it isn’t the decisive factor, it’s something that tells us how good these Koreans are.
LGD is still one of the best Chinese teams that are competing in this tournament. This is quite a surprise, as we thought VG were much stronger, but they stated they didn’t prepare well for the tournament and it showed. Now LGD is one of the Chinese teams with the most chances of succeeding, and the only one in that got to the Upper Bracket.
MVP Phoenix seems to be in an extremely good shape, while there are some doubts about LGD’s performance. The SEA is coming to this Chinese tournament with the intention of winning it, and they showed just that in the Group Stage. We can’t stop thinking about how MVP Phoenix helped send EHOME to Lower Bracket even though they were the favorite team. This is why MVP Phoenix has higher chances of winning this series.
>> Result Prediction: 2-1 MVP Phoenix
Main Event – Lower Bracket – Predictions:
Day 1 – Match #3: EHOME vs. Archon
EHOME came to this tournament favorite but quickly dropped to Lower Bracket. They are still a team with really good chances of making it to the finals, but they will need to wake up the beast if they want to survive the first two Bo1 rounds.
Archon is the underdog coming to the Shanghai Major 2016. They already had a tough start and couldn’t win a single game in the Group Stage. Now they will need to beat the tournament’s favorite, so these guys might be coming to this game really demoralized. Nevertheless, there’s always space for surprise in these big tournaments, and EHOME has already lost to a team that was considered far inferior.
Fortunately for EHOME, their first Bo1 is against arguably the weakest team in this tournament. They shouldn’t have any problem winning because we all know that this lineup is still one of the strongest in the world.
>> Result Prediction: 1-0 EHOME
Day 1 – Match #4: Team Spirit vs. Complexity
Team Spirit and Complexity are two teams that are on the same level, so this one is really hard to predict. This game will depend on the strategy they can use to throw off the other. Let’s remember that these matches depend a lot on using what’s called “cheese” strategies, which are very unpredictable ways of approaching a match that can quickly win a game if the other team doesn’t figure it out on time. Still, Team Spirit seems to have performed better in the Group Stage since they defeated VG 2-0, and these unpredictable CIS teams are really good at winning Bo1 series. This should be taken by Spirit.
>> Result Prediction: 1-0 Team Spirit
Day 1 – Match #5: Virtus Pro vs. Vici Gaming
Vici Gaming is one of the most consistent teams in Dota 2. They’ve been finishing top 5 in every big tournament for the past 2 years. However, according to offlaner iceiceice, they had some troubles with practicing times and didn’t come prepared to Shanghai. It seems he was right because they didn’t win a single series in the Group Stage. They are showing they’re really rusty and even lost 2-0 to a tier 2 team. They might drop really soon from the tournament.
While VG dropped very easily to Lower Bracket, Virtus Pro was really close to making it to Upper Bracket. They won the first series against Liquid but lost the second. They are still one of the main threats coming to this tournament. We also know they didn’t play many competitive games before this tournament just to play scrims to prepare the best they could. Virtus Pro has certainly studied VG and know they’re weak, and we all know that CIS teams are really tough for the Chinese playing style.
>> Result Prediction: 1-0 Virtus Pro
Day 1 – Match #6: CDEC vs. Newbee
CDEC is slowly starting to stay behind every other important Chinese team. This has led the team to start in the Lower Bracket after losing all their series in the Group Stage. Their main problem might be that they haven’t changed their playing style since they finished second in The International 2015, so other teams have figured them out.
Newbee is now under new command held by veteran Chuan. This has led this team to show improvement when compared to their performance these last 2 years. They still aren’t in a good shape because they are adapting to a new roster. They didn’t do that bad in the Group Stage and still won 3 games, but they dropped to Lower Bracket because they weren’t able to defeat LGD.
This match is not easy to predict either—although Bo1 games are always unpredictable. It will all depend on draft and strategy, but CDEC has more time playing together and they just had a tougher Group compared to Newbee.
>> Result Prediction: 1-0 CDEC
The rest of the predictions will be posted before the beginning of each day of the Shanghai Major 2016 Main Event.
About The Author:
Predictions by Will ‘WilDS’ De Sousa, E-sports Journalist and Dota player since 2010. Contact Will‘ WilDS’ De Sousa on Twitter!