Week 7 – Jordan’s LCS Betting Strategy

Week 6 was a solid and predictable week in Europe and North American LCS. Favourites across both regions won 82% of matches and did so in dominating style. Week 6 results from North America are what I expected to see from NA teams from Week 3 right through to Week 8 – where teams chemistry and synergy (or lack of!) sets in and match results of most matches become steadily more predictable and consistent. It was a wise choice to not include NA in last week’s bets because 2 of the 3 losses they had for the week would have been in Betting Group 1, but overall they restore confidence for betting on from this point forward.

Upcoming LCS matches:

Favourites Performance in Week 6

Favourite according to betting odds won
Favourite according to betting odds lost
No favourite according to betting odds / odds too low= no bet placed

Week 6 EU LCS Spring Split 2017 – Results and Betting Odds
Team 1 Odds Team 2 Odds Result Bookie
Betting Group 1 UoL 1.57 MIS 2.25 1 : 2 WH
H2K 1.66 FNC 2.10 2 : 0 WH
G2 1.062 VIT 8.00 2 : 0 WH
SPY 1.14 GIA 5.00  2 : 0 WH
MIS 1.062 OG 8.00 2 : 0 WH
UoL 1.08 ROC 7.00 2 : 0 WH

EU Results

Last week I mentioned that due to the tumultuous match wins and losses in NA, for those losing wanting to play it safe and see how matches would turn out from Week 6 in North America, to only bet on the 6 games that played over the weekend. Europe has a favourite win rate of over 90% right now and in 2 out of the 6 LCS weeks so far favourites have won 100% of their matches so far.

Unfortunately, this week was not one of the weeks where EU favourites won every match. Betting across the above teams with last week’s $98.84 only returned $100.39. This is because EU favourites teams are so consistent that three of the matches paid 1.08 or below which drags down overall ‘return on bets placed’ for that Betting Group, and because we had that one unfortunate loss. The week however did give those who didn’t bet an opportunity to stall on a shaky North American region to see if they were going to be worthwhile betting on for the rest of this split.

Week 6 NA and EU LCS Spring Split 2017 – Results and Betting Odds
Team 1 Odds Team 2 Odds Result Bookie
UoL 1.57 MIS 2.25 1 : 2 WH
H2K 1.66 FNC 2.10 2 : 0 WH
G2 1.062 VIT 8.00 2 : 0 WH
SPY 1.14 GIA 5.00  2 : 0 WH
IMT 1.730 TL 2.00 1 : 2 WH
P1 1.57 CLG 2.25 1 : 2 WH
MIS 1.062 OG 8.00 2 : 0 WH
UoL 1.08 ROC 7.00 2 : 0 WH
C9 1.36 FOX 3.40 2 : 0 WH
FLY 1.40 NV 2.75 2 : 1 WH
P1 1.57 DIG 2.25 2 : 1 WH
TSM 1.53 CLG 2.37 2 : 0 WH
FOX 1.67 TL 2.10 2 : 1 WH
TSM 1.44 DIG 2.60 2 : 0 WH
C9 1.44 FLY 2.60 2 : 0 WH
IMT 1.29 NV 3.50 1 : 2 WH

What did we make last week?

Results of last LCS week
Starting Investment previous Balance Performance last week Perfomance % New Balance
$200 $98.84 + $1.55 + 1,57% $100.39

Strongest Week yet!

LCS Week 6 had a favourite win rate of 82% and was overall a success for our betting strategy – results we saw in Week 3 and that we were expecting to see in Week 4 and 5. This week also had a record 72% game win rate from favourites for this Split. As we can see above, in an impressive 9 of 12 match wins this split did the favourites take the match without giving up a game, likewise, in the 4 matches lost by favourites in Week 6 every single match was a split 1:2 match – implying a close loss for the match.

It was a wise choice to not include NA in last week’s bets because 2 of the 3 losses they had for the week were in Betting Group 1. The turn of Week 6 results, however, from the fortnight prior gives me the confidence to commit to betting with the same strategy across both regions for the rest of this split.

Bets for Week 7

Betting Group 1 ROC 1.50 OG 2.50
VIT 1.83 GIA 1.83
UoL 1.50 FNC 2.50
G2 1.16 SPY 4.50
C9 1.25 TL 3.75
FLY 1.72 P1 2.00
Betting Group 2 VIT 1.66 ROC 2.10
H2K 1.72 MIS 2.00
CLG 1.57 DIG 2.25
TSM 1.11 NV 6.00
FLY 1.53 IMT 2.37
P1 1.36 FOX 3.00
Betting Group 3 GIA TBA OG TBA
C9 1.44 CLG 2.62
TL 1.30 NV 3.40
DIG 1.72 FOX 2.00
TSM 1.40 IMT 2.75

The odds at eSports betting site Bet365 are up for all matches in Week 7 except for the last one of EU LCS: GIA vs. OG. Make sure to keep your eye on matches where the favourites change, for example the Vitality/Giants match which is yet to have a favourite. Our ‘perfect week’ has a potential to return $356.31 if we win all matches but assuming a win rate of around 80%, we should be sitting around $200-250 by this time next week.

Betting Group 1

EU Day 1 and 2 + NA Day 1:

  • Roccat paying 1.50
  • UoL paying 1.50
  • G2 Esports paying 1.16
  • C9 paying 1.25
  • FlyQuest paying 1.72

Winning Value per Bet = 100.39/ ((1/1.50) + (1/1.50) + (1/1.16) + (1/1.25) + (1/1.72))

Winning Value per Bet = $28.07

Stakes Group 1

  • Roccat’s stake is $18.71
  • UoL’s stake is $18.71
  • G2 Esports’ stake is $24.20
  • C9’s stake is $22.46
  • FlyQuest’s stake is $16.32

You might also be interested in:

LCS 2017 – Overview

Jordan’s LCS betting strategy explained

LoL Betting – Oveview

more eSports betting tips and predictions

Jordan - LoL article writerAbout The Author:
Theories and formulas by Jordan Mackenzie, Business graduate and lolesports fanatic. Oceanic League player who belongs in ELO Hell. Follow Jordan on Twitter to get the latest updates on his strategy.