Week 3 – Jordan’s LCS Betting Strategy

An exciting LCS week 2 has finished and, with it, we have piles of new information for us to analyse, overanalyse, and then analyse again. As expected, favourites win rates on average didn’t reach the 80% and higher standards that we saw in weeks 3-9 of LCS NA Summer 2016 (the only other LCS season to have been played in a Best of 3 format). They did however exceed expectations for the week 1-2 performances. North America sits at just over 60% match wins for favourites compared to just under 60% of the same wins in Summer 2016, giving us confidence that the patterns of our last Bo3 format are being repeated. EU’s favourites on the other hand had a much more dominant opening two weeks of the LCS with a 74% game win rate and an 86% match win rate, even flying above where we need to be for the regular season in order for our betting strategy to be successful.

In my opening article on this series, Jordan’s Betting Strategy for LCS 2017, I explained that betting across every favourite of every LCS day and splitting your investment so that each bet returned an equal value should result in steady consistent wins throughout the entire LCS season due to favourite win rates of above 80%. With a big fat asterisks I explained that performances in the first two weeks of LCS were consistently poor for backing betting favourites so the strategy that I would be using wouldn’t be adopted until Week 3. That being said, Europe’s showing in week 1 and 2 of the 2017 LCS Spring Split display for us how quickly compounding growth from many small wins can turn a small kitty into a large kitty.

If you’d have started the strategy I propose for Europe’s LCS games in Week 1 with an opening balance of $200, then after splitting your bets across six games in the first week you would have had $229.95. Only an incremental gain due to one loss and two matches that paid less than $1.15. Reinvesting your winnings, $229.95 grows to $316.06 by the end of Week 2 if we split our bets across the four games on Day 1 and Day 2, then repeating the process across the four games on Day 3 and Day 4. A 58% increase on our starting balance in 2 weeks – the success is not always ‘slowly and steady’!

Upcoming LCS matches:

Favourites Performance in Week 2

Favourite according to betting odds won
Favourite according to betting odds lost

LCS – NA and EU Spring Split 2017 – Results Week 2
Team 1 Odds Team 2 Odds Result Bookie
Betting Group 1 UoL 1,20 OG 4,33 2 : 0 B365
MIS 1,25 ROC 3,75 2 : 0 B365
SPY 1,40 VIT 2,75 2 : 0 B365
FNC 1,36 GIA 3,00 2 : 1 B365
CLG 1,57 FLY 2,25 0 : 2 B365
TSM 1,50 DIG 2,50 2 : 1 B365
Betting Group 2 H2K 1,50 UoL 2,50 1 : 2 B365
G2 1,25 MIS 3,75 2 : 1 B365
C9 1,454 IMT 2,78 2 : 0 PIN
P1 1,40 NV 2,75 2 : 0 B365
TSM 1,53 TL 2,52 2 : 1 PIN
DIG 1,222 FOX 4,359 1 : 2 PIN
Betting Group 3 VIT 1,44 OG 2,62 2 : 0 B365
GIA 1,51 ROC 2,59 2 : 1 PIN
TL 1,57 P1 2,42 0 : 2 PIN
FLY 1,469 FOX 2,719 1 : 2 PIN
IMT 1,314 NV 3.49 2 : 1 PIN
C9 1,47 CLG 2,60 2 : 1 LUX

How Do We Begin?

First things first, how many games do I bet across? In past splits when there were 10 games per week across 2 days, I would often bet across five games. With 80% of favourites winning, it’s an easy ratio to know you’re aiming for 4 of 5 match wins to see growth. It was enough spread to protect you when a few games lost but with each extra game you bet across you lose the potential odds of that match if you had have bet on it separately. How many games you need to win will change slightly week to week based on the odds of the matchups that week, so it isn’t a strict 4 of 5. To make it simple for this split, in one group of betting I will be betting on no less than 4 games to minimise the risk, and no more than 6 to maximise the growth.

We’re also at the mercy of the schedule because of the sheer volume of games we have this Split now that both regions have adopted a Bo3 format. You can’t exactly separate bets on games that will be occurring at the same time or even directly after one another. For this reason, I’ve created a betting group schedule to show how you would split bets up if you were punting on NA LCS sand EU LCS concurrently. If you don’t want to have to manage your bets twice over the course of a weekend and only want to bet on just Europe or North America then I would suggest the following. For Europe, split your bets over all 6 games each week, and for North America, split your bets across favourites on Day 1 and 2 then reinvest your winning over favourites on Day 3.

How to bet across EU LCS and NA LCS concurrently in Week 3

Number of machtes per betting group: 6 – 6 – 4
Betting Group #1: EU D1 + D2 and NA D1
Betting Group #2: EU D3 and NA D2
Betting Group #3: NA D3

Putting the LCS betting strategy into practice

Now to show you how to place bets as we come into Week 3. I’ll be betting on NA and EU concurrently but for those betting on either one or the other the same principles apply. We follow our Schedule for Week 3 and the matches laid out. Our Betting Group for Week 3 is EU Day 1 and 2, and NA Day 1. The matches are the following:

Matches in Betting Group #1 (EU D1 + D2 and NA D1)

 EU LCS Spring Split 2017 – Week 3 | Day 1 

Match #1: Team Logo Splyce EU LCS 2017 Splyce vs. Team Logo Unicorns of Love EU LCS 2017 Unicorns of Love
February 2nd, 08:00 AM PST/ 11:00 AM EST/ 17:00 CET 

Match #2: Team Logo Fnatic EU LCS 2017 Fnatic vs. Team Logo Misfits EU LCS 2017 Misfits
February 2nd, 11:00 AM PST/ 02:00 PM EST/ 20:00 CET 

 EU LCS Spring Split 2017 – Week 3 | Day 2 

Match #1: Team Logo Vitality EU LCS 2017 Team Vitality vs. Team H2k Logo - LoL Worlds H2K Gaming
February 3rd, 08:00 AM PST/ 11:00 AM EST/ 17:00 CET

Match #2: Team Logo Giants EU LCS 2017 Giants Gaming vs. Team Logo G2 Esports EU LCS 2017 G2 Esports
February 3rd, 11:00 AM PST/ 02:00 PM EST/ 20:00 CET 

 NA LCS Spring Split 2017 – Week 3 | Day 1

Match #1: Team Logo Immortals NA LCS 2017 Immortals vs. Team Logo Phoenix1 NA LCS 2017 Phoenix1
February 3rd, 03:00 PM PST/ 06:00 PM EST/ 24:00 CET 

Match #2: Team Logo Envy NA LCS 2017 Team EnVyUs vs. Team Logo Liquid NA LCS 2017 Team Liquid 
February 3rd, 06:00 PM PST/ 09:00 PM EST/ 03:00 CET (next day)

Odds will of course vary depending on who you bet through and when you place your bets, as matches draw nearer favourites tend to pay less because more people bet on them causing their odds to drop. This week we our very first two matches have equal odds so be stay true to form of our formula, we will be leaving them out of our Betting Group 1. You can of course pick your own favourites or wait to see if the odds change if you would like to include them. The odds of the favourites in Betting Group 1 (taken from eSports betting site bet365 and Luxbet) are as follows:

Favourites according to betting odds:
Splyce vs. UOL – NO FAVOURITE (equal odds)
Fanatic vs. Misfits – NO FAVOURITE (equal odds)
H2K odds: 1.36
G2 Esports odds: 1.12
Immortals odds: 1.70
Team Liquid odds: 1.36

Let’s run this through our formula:
Value per Bet =
Total Investment / ((1/Odds of Bet 1) + (1/Odds of Bet 2) + (1/Odds of Bet 3)),..

Each bet has a different odd so if we bet the same amount across all matches then the stake would vary match-to-match. Instead, we’ll use a formula to help us find what the value of each successful bet will be across each of the varying odds, assuming we want that value to be equal amongst all bets. The formula we use is:

For example, if we start our LCS Spring betting journey with $200 then our equation for Betting Group #1 of Week 3 would read like this:

Value per Bet (Betting Group #1)=
200 / ((1/1.36) + (1/1.12) + (1/1.70) + (1.36))
Winning Value per Bet = $67.76

Now we have what value each bet will have if it wins. To calculate what stake you place on that bet you divide the Winning Value by the Odds of the bet. Pheonix 1’s stake would be ($67.76 / $1.70) $39.86 whereas G2 Esports’ stake would be ($67.76 / $1.12) $60.50, a higher stake for a game which is much more likely to win. Our stake against each game looks like this:

So these are our stakes:
H2K’s stake is $49.82
G2 Esports’ stake is $60.50
Pheonix 1’s stake is $39.86
Team Liquid’s stake is $49.82

If your numbers vary slightly to mine, don’t panic! It may be because odds have varied slightly from the time of this posting or because you have found better odds through different book keepers. At the time of writing this, I picked the best of odds from Bet365 and Luxbet. You should do the same to find what best odds are available to you in your region for each match.

Let’s dream big

Let’s assume for a moment a perfect week where every favourite wins! We can only hope. This way I can run an example of what favourite’s odds we have for Betting Group 2 and 3, and what stake we bet against each match for the entire weekend. After Day 1 of North America finishes our first Betting Group has the potential to return us $271.03, so let’s begin again from there.

Odds Betting Group 2
Splyce paying 1.20
Fanatic paying 1.22
Team SoloMid paying 1.59
Dignitas paying 1.67
Team Liquid paying 1.67
C9 paying 1.10

Betting Group 2 Calculation
Winning Value per Bet =
271.03 / ((1/1.20) + (1/1.22) + (1/1.59) + (1/1.67) + (1/1.67 + (1/1.10))
Winning Value per Bet = $61.76

Splyce’s stake is $51.47
Fanatic’s stake is $50.62
Team SoloMid’s stake is $38.84
Dignitas’ stake is $36.93
Team Liquid’s stake is $36.93
C9’s stake is $56.06

Potential Winning = $370.55

Odds Betting Group 3
Team SoloMid paying 1.66
Dignitas paying 1.73
Immortal paying 1.87
C9 paying 1.20

Betting Group 3 Calculation
Winning Value per Bet =
370.55 / ((1/1.66) + (1/1.73) + (1/1.87) + (1/1.20))
Winning Value per Bet = $145.40

Team SoloMid’s stake is $87.59
Dignitas’ stake is $84.04
Immortal’s stake is $77.75
C9’s stake is $121.17

Potential Winning = $581.58

That concludes our bets for Week 3, the first week for my betting strategy for LCS Spring Split. Drop back in next week so we can either celebrate the wins or assess the damage together!

You might also be interested in:

Week 4 – Jordan’s betting strategy

LCS 2017 – Overview

Jordan’s LCS betting strategy explained

LoL Betting – Oveview

more eSports betting tips and predictions

Jordan - LoL article writerAbout The Author:
Theories and formulas by Jordan Mackenzie, Business graduate and lolesports fanatic. Oceanic League player who belongs in ELO Hell. Follow Jordan on Twitter to get the latest updates on his strategy.