Update on Jordan’s LCS Betting Strategy – after Week 1

The 2017 LCS Season kicked off with an explosive start. G2 Esports showed no sign of slowing off of their performance from last year with dominant wins on both days. Contractz debuted with First Blood and followed it up with aggressive carrying on Kha’Zix from the jungle. FlyQuest defeated Envy and Liquid, sitting on top of the ladder after Week 1 along their C9 counterpart. And Dignitas are living up to the hype with the strength of new Korean top laner Ssumday. So how did favourites perform for our LCS introduction week?

Upcoming LCS matches:

Favourites Performance in Week 1

LCS – NA and EU Spring Split 2017 – Results Week 1
Team 1 Odds Team 2 Odds Result Bookie
Betting Group 1 H2K 1,14 OG 5,00 2 : 0 WH
G2 1,33 FNC 3,25 2 : 1 WH
MIS 1,44 GIA 2,82 2 : 1 PIN
UoL 1,84 VIT 1,98 2 : 0 PIN
TSM 1,70 C9 2,10 0 : 2 LUX
P1 1,44 FOX 2,60 2 : 0 WH
Betting Group 2 G2 1,13 ROC 6,03 2 : 0 PIN
SPY 1,85 H2K 1,90 0 : 2 LUX
CLG 1,72 TL 2,00 0 : 2 B365
NV 1,42 FQ 2,75 0 : 2 LUX
IMT 1,275 FOX 3,79 2 : 1 PIN
DIG 1,793 P1 2,04 2 : 1 PIN
Betting Group 3 TSM 1,57 IMT 2,25 2 : 1 B365
CLG 1,40 NV 2,75 2 : 0 B365
C9 1,50 DIG 2,25 2 : 1 B365
TL 1,52 FQ 2,45 1 : 2 LUX

Overall favourites were quite solid in this first week, more so than they have been in Week 1 of LCS Splits in the recent past. The most interesting thing I found from this split, so far, is the amount of games where we saw a stronger team (those we would typically have placed higher in our power rankings) come from a losing position then go on to win the game. For those familiar with LCS, casters will often keep track of the team’s overall gold because it gives the best indication of whether a team is ahead or behind. Every beneficial action rewards a team, or part of a team, with gold and it directly affects each player’s power once that gold is used.

What caught my attention over the last few days is that stronger teams take advantage of their gold leads to make further leads or to finish games. They also know how to play from behind after a bad start and edge their way back into the game. Once the late game arrives and teams have closed the gap in team power all it takes is one well executed team fight to win the game – as we’ve seen time and time again. We saw this last Week in games with G2 v Fanatic and Misfitss v Giants, but the best example would be Immortals’ series against Echo Fox.

Immortals (the clear favourite in this match up) won the series 2:1 after being down in game 1. They were at a gold deficit all of game 1 that ranged from a few hundred at times all the way to 6.6k. IMT managed to close the gap and bring the gold totals to even after Flame picked up a Quadrakill on Fiora, however shortly after Baron was secured by FOX and they took the game. In Game 2 IMT were again trailing behind FOX conceding 3 Drakes, Baron, and 2 Inhibitors by the late game. With exceptional rotating in the base against Baron empowered minions, and by winning back-to-back team fights, they managed to scrape together the surprising win. Finally, in Game 3 they trailed FOX in team gold which peaked at 8.7k difference. Through effective Baron defence and having the discipline to choose the right team fights they managed to bring that difference to zero in the 44th minute and win the series 4 minutes later.

To me these small insights are critically important because of what it tells us about betting. Firstly, it reconfirms the likelihood of favourites winning their matchups. In LCS games this week where stronger teams had a gold advantage much more often they made the plays that furthered their lead and won the game. There is a list of new talent and aggressive players in the jungle this season and it only takes one successful gank that can cause an early lead to snowball. Favourites will more often be capable of returning stability to the game. Secondly, some betting companies have the option to Opt Out of live bets for a portion of your stake but the evidence we’ve just spoke about would suggest that this is rarely a good idea. And as far as live bets go, be careful putting money down on weaker teams after a strong start and after their odds have lowered. Less payout for what is arguably the same amount of risk!

So back to our betting strategy, how did results and findings this week pair up with the strategy we introduced last week?

Where We’d be if we bet on Week 1

Starting Investment $200,00
 BG1 Value per Bet  $    48,20
 BG1 Balance  $  240,98
 BG2 Value per Bet  $    59,46
BG2 Balance  $  178,37
 BG3 Value per Bet  $    66,66
Total Balance after Week 1  $  199,98

As introduced in my Betting Strategy for LCS, I found that favourites won their matches around 80% of the time and that average odds meant that betting across all favourites each LCS day had a good probability of having a positive return. One of the important findings was that the stats for favourite wins were much less attractive for Week 1 and 2 when the performance of teams is usually still up in the air. For some teams their full roster had yet to practice together when the first Markets went up! Gives you an idea of how accurate the odds can be at the initial stage of the LCS season.

Between NA and EU, 69% of favourites won their matches in the first week of LCS. Some matches however were closely matched with almost even odds; Splyce v H2K, CLG v Liquid, Dignitas v Pheonix1. If you’d bet across Europe’s first 6 games then you would have seen 15% positive growth, across North Americas 10 matchups an incremental loss of about 11%, and across both regions concurrently almost an exact break even. Overall it was a good idea to wait to employ our Betting Strategy as Week 1 did not have the best results. As matches, odds, and teams should become more consistent in the coming weeks, these winnings are predicted to become more consistent and with higher value.

I personally saw some wins in the first week of LCS, starting with $200 across Bet365, WilliamHill and Pinnacle on games I thought had strong favourites and finishing the LCS week with just over $320. I plan to ‘put my money where my mouth is’ this season and will be betting alongside the articles I release on my betting strategy. I won’t be starting the strategy I propose until LCS Week 3 but, for those interested, I’ll show you how to calculate how much to bet on each stake so that every win has an equal return. Some may want to test and try for Week 2. For the rest, check this space next week for a step-by-step on where and how we’ll be placing our bets for wins all season.

How to calculate stake per bet

Value per bet=Total Kitty/((1/Odds of First Bet) + (1/Odds of Second Bet) + (1/Odds of Third Bet)…)

Value per bet / Odds of First Bet = Stake of First Bet

You might also be interested in:

LCS 2017 – Overview

Jordan’s LCS betting stratey explained

LoL Betting – Oveview

Outright winner betting odds – LCS Spring Split 2017

more eSports betting tips and predictions

Jordan - LoL article writerAbout The Author:
Theories and formulas by Jordan Mackenzie, Business graduate and lolesports fanatic. Oceanic League player who belongs in ELO Hell. Follow Jordan on Twitter to get the latest updates on his strategy.