After 3 days of the Shanghai Major we are already getting overwhelmed by so many surprises. Nobody saw the results we’ve seen until now. Liquid and Secret, which weren’t coming with the best shape, have already secured a third place in the Major and now they’re playing one of the hardest games to predict. This Upper Bracket Finals will be one of the most interesting games and we’re looking forward to see what happens. Another really big surprise was Complexity beating Alliance. The Sweden lineup was playing very well in this tournament until they dropped to Lower Bracket, and they didn’t look good in the games against the North Americans either. The Chinese teams are already out but there are still some teams that were considered tier 2-3 before this tournament: Complexity, Fnatic and MVP Phoenix. This has turned into a truly unique Major—and not only because of the production problems it’s been experimenting.
Let’s see what we expect to happen in this day 4.
Main Event Day 4 – Lower Bracket Predictions
Day 4 – Match #1: EG vs. Complexity
The first Lower Bracket game for EG is going to be played against the only other North American team in the tournament. This is something that NA fans didn’t want to happen, but this is competitive Dota. EG’s performance has been really good so far, even after losing against Secret. The games weren’t easy at all for both teams, so it’s hard to blame on EG for not being able to win; Secret just played really well from the start to the end of the series. EG is still to be considered one of the teams that have the highest chances of winning the tournament, and they’re arguably the strongest team in the Lower Bracket
Complexity have done what most people didn’t think was possible. They began in the Lower Bracket because they had to fight in the toughest group, but are still alive and have proved they can beat more than weak tier 2 teams. They eliminated one of the favorite teams (Alliance) even though they are a really young roster that hasn’t played together for too long. This is their weakness, and this kind of problem begins to show in the toughest situations. It’s similar to what happened to MVPP against Liquid; they underperformed when compared to their previous games, and this is what could happen to Complexity going against the Ti5 champions.
For this game EG have the highest chances of winning. We’ve had many surprises in this tournament, so Complexity does have a chance of winning this series—remember Fnatic won against OG, MVPP against EHOME and Secret, and Complexity again Alliance, so anything could happen. Still, we are talking about two teams from the same region, so they’re used to each other and know their own playing style. EG should be able to capitalize this fact easier than CoL can, so they should end up winning this.
>> Result Prediction: 2-0 EG
Day 4 – Match #2: MVP Phoenix vs. Fnatic
Similarly to what is going to happen between CoL and EG, the only remaining SEA teams will have to eliminate each other. This means that we can’t really say that there is going to be an advantage regarding teams not knowing the other’s playing style. These teams are from a really small scene in South Eastern Asia, and are used to play against each other. Between both of them, Fnatic is the team with the most experience—they have veteran Mushi as captain, and other players with good experience like Ohaiyo—, and they’ve showed no problem beating MVPP before. Still, we need to bear in mind that MVPP has played really well in this tournament and it cannot be compared to their previous performance.
MVP Phoenix came to this tournament with their batteries fully charged and won the toughest games we could’ve imagined. Their first single game loss was against Liquid, and they also dropped to Lower Bracket against them. The truth is that they didn’t show the same strong game they had been showing before going against the German lineup. This is something to bear in mind before predicting this series.
Fnatic has more experienced player and are coming with an important moral boost after beating Frankfurt Major champions OG. On the other hand, MVPP is coming from a country where Dota 2 is relatively a new game and still needs a lot of grow in the competitive scene; they also might be coming with their moral hurt after losing so easily against Liquid in two games that were basically a stomp. Fnatic might be able to win this series unless MVPP gets back to the way they were playing before going against Liquid.
>> Result Prediction: 2-1 Fnatic
Main Event Day 3 – Upper Bracket Predictions:
Day 4 – Match #3: Liquid vs. Secret
Liquid wasn’t the strongest team when they started playing in this tournament. They were expected to drop to Lower Bracket quickly, but they’re now in the Upper Bracket Finals. This has secured at least third place in the tournament for them. However, Secret is strongest than the teams they’ve faced in this Major. This is just another of those games that will put this team under a lot more pressure than what they have experienced until now. Let’s remind us that Liquid has only faced teams that weren’t considered between the best prior to this tournament (excepting Alliance, who ended up losing against Complexity after that).
Secret has a similar story to Liquid’s; we thought these guys were going to drop to Lower Bracket quickly, but they are still here. What’s different is that Secret has already beaten some of the top teams in the tournament: EHOME, OG and EG. These guys have already won against teams that were expected to be in the finals of this tournament. This says a lot about the mind state Secret will have in this series.
Secret has already beaten the best teams in the world in the tournament, and while Liquid has also put a break on two teams that seemed unstoppable, they are yet to show their performance against the top teams. Secret is one of them, and it’s clear that they have the advantage in this series. Everything could happen, but going for Secret might be the safest bet.
>> Result Prediction: 2-1 Secret
Day 4 – Shanghai Major 2016 – Betting Odds
BET365 INFO: Find LCS betting in the menu on the left: E-Sports (Dota 2)
Bet-at-Home Info: Find Dota 2 betting in the menu on the left: All sports > E-Sport
*.) Odds may have changed by now – no guarantee! The predictions are the opinion of the author.
About The Author:
Predictions by Will ‘WilDS’ De Sousa, E-sports Journalist and Dota player since 2010. Contact Will‘ WilDS’ De Sousa on Twitter!