How to bet on The International 2015:
If you are looking to make a futures bet on the International, there are a couple different routes that bettors go with. Some bettors like to simply go with their heart: they pick their favorite team and ride that team’s tournament results alongside them. Others try to see betting as a way to make money and try to pick the team that they think will win the tournament and pay them out big money! We will be focusing on a third type of bettor/betting style: value betting.
By value betting, we are trying to identify and then bet on the teams/results that provide the best bang for their buck. That is to say, we are looking for teams that are more likely to win than their current line would indicate them to win at. At the end of the day, this is how you can actually consistently generate positive money long term from e-sports. Firstly, it’s easiest to convert current odds over to a percentage win in order for it to be easily digested, visually.
The International 2015 – Main Event Bets & Odds
Using current Pinnacle odds the required breakeven win% is shown below. Keep in mind that this shows the minimum amount of times that the given team has to win the International for you to break even on your bet. For example, again using team Secret, they need to win the International at least 50.25% of the time for you to even begin making money.
The first thing that might jump out at you is that if you sum up all of the percentages, you come out with 124,2317814 %! “How can their odds be a combined greater than 100% to win the International”, you might think to yourself. That extra ~24% is the juice or the vig that you are paying on your bets (how the sportsbook makes money). It’s like a service fee – they provide the medium/tools for you to place your bets against the market/other people and collect a little fee on each bet.
If you start thinking in non-absolutes, like a poker player, then you can begin to pick out the value bets. Most beginning bettors are simply going to try to pick the winner so they go with the team with the highest (or top ~3) chance of winning. They don’t want to bet on someone who doesn’t have a high chance of winning because they feel like its “unsafe”. Many times, however, the best bets are the undervalued, unwanted teams who are getting prices that are actually below what they should be.
For example TI5 Main Event odds at Bet-at-Home:
The International 2015 – Main Event Odds & Dota 2 Bets
Purely hypothetically, say that Team Archon wins the International 1% of the time. A lot of people still wouldn’t bet on them because that’s such a low percentage! It’s unsafe! 99% of the time, you lose your money if you bet on them to win TI5! Now, that’s all true, but if you look at the price that you are offered, they only need to win TI5 ~0.053% of the time for you to make profit. You are taking a 1/100 event and are getting paid +188983 on your bet. For every 100 times you bet on this event, you are expected to return, on average over the long term, one win. One win correlates to a payout (say, for example, you bet $1 each time) of $1889.83. So you are paying $1, 100 times, to receive $1889.83, on average! Holy smokes. You pay $100 and win $1889.83. Your esports betting money is returning over 1800%. You might be starting to see the value.
Now, lets look at the other end of the spectrum. Taking Team Secret, lets say that they “actually” win TI5 about 40% of the time. Then, 40/100 times you can expect to return a win, on average. Lets say you are paying, again, $1 per bet. Every 100 bets generates you 40 wins. But wins on Team Secret bets only provide you with $0.990099 for every $1 bet. This means that your 100 bets is going to generate you $39.60! So for every $100 you are betting, you are actually only returning $39.60 or, in other words, you lose over $60 every time you bet on Team Secret in this scenario! And this is in the hypothetical situation that they win TI5 40x more often than Team Archon! It doesn’t necessarily mean that they are the better bet and I’m hoping that you guys are starting to understand this.
If you are ready to delve into the depths of Dota 2 betting, or are simply wanting to research some more information before you make your very first bet, make sure you stay tuned with this website and this series as we try to provide you with all the resources you (actually) need in order to turn this hobby into a profitable one!